Year
Unknown
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Contributed by Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley.
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Transcription
s
[illegible]
I guess I would say that you said
should it be as an event, or as an event, or as an event?
with respect to the price level and inflation.
and of course, with respect to the interest rate.
or whatever else it is that we are looking at.
so what has happened? if you would take a look at
what you would call the potential output, which is the long-run
growth path for real GDP. and you would say that the potential output
has been increasing over time, which is good. but also
that there have been periods of time when the actual output has been below
the potential output.
and so what happens if you look at the difference between the actual output and the potential output?
you get a measure of the output gap.
so what do we call this measure? it's called the output gap.
so what is the output gap? it's the difference between the actual output and the potential output.
and so if you look at the output gap, you can see that there have been periods of time when the output gap has been positive, which means that the actual output has been above the potential output.
and then there have been periods of time when the output gap has been negative, which means that the actual output has been below the potential output.
and so what does this tell us? it tells us that the economy is not always at its potential output.
and so what happens if you look at the relationship between the output gap and inflation?
you can see that there is a positive relationship between the output gap and inflation.
so what does this mean? it means that when the output gap is positive, inflation tends to be higher than when the output gap is negative.
and so what happens if you look at the relationship between the output gap and unemployment?
you can see that there is a negative relationship between the output gap and unemployment.
so what does this mean? it means that when the output gap is positive, unemployment tends to be lower than when the output gap is negative.
and so what happens if you look at the relationship between the output gap and real GDP growth?
you can see that there is a positive relationship between the output gap and real GDP growth.
so what does this mean? it means that when the output gap is positive, real GDP growth tends to be higher than when the output gap is negative.